BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+8 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card at Florida. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50-100 entries at the $25k prize, then I will probably take a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roosevelt Roberts — $9,500
I expect Roberts to be the much better fighter everywhere this fight goes. I believe Gifford’s best shot at a win would be locking a guillotine. Other than that, I think we’ve got a pretty safe win here using Roberts and that’s precisely what I am searching for. I want the safer wins in cash and I will worry about who’s going to score the highest in GPPs. I believe we could eliminate him at the GPPs in his cost because when he sets up 90 DK points in a win then that won’t win $25k. It helps us win in cash games though and I would be surprised if he had a low scoring win . I think he is excellent for 80-100 points here and I’m totally ok with that in my money lineup.
GPP play of this week — Greg Hardy- $9,300
Hardy is my GPP drama of the week and he has the highest ITD chances on the card in -222. This is a set up struggle for him to receive a knockout and I believe this is most likely going to take place in the very first round. That should place Hardy over 100 points and I am interested in that. Hardy is going to be among my best plays of the week, but he’s GPP just for me personally. We can’t trust him enough for cash games, so that is why I enjoy Roberts more in that arrangement. I really do think Hardy can outscore Roberts even though they both win, and he’s $200 cheaper. That could knock Roberts off the top lineup and in spite of higher ownership we could win that $25k with Hardy in our lineup so long as he receives the first KO. Hardy wins in round 1 is strung in -130 and that’s too good for me to pass on in GPPs.
Underdog drama of this week — Glover Teixeira — $7,900
Teixeira is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We get Teixeira here for 400 cheaper than Cutelaba and he is favored to get the win. I also believe he could win in the 1st round with a score and submission above 90 points. That would give him a good chance at being on the perfect lineup. I will be targeting both sides of the struggle in GPPs since I do not expect it to go all 3 rounds, but that value on Teixeira is exactly what I like the most and we have to have”underdogs” in our DK lineups with the $50k salary cap. I think that the obvious path to success for Glover is on the floor and that is precisely what I anticipate his game must be. I enjoy him to find a submission win if he is able to land takedowns and he will be one of my highest possessed underdogs this week.
Fade of the week — Carla Esparza ($8,200)
I understand people were expecting me to place Angela Hill as my fade at $9.4k. She’s a solid fade as well… But I am going with Esparza as my fade this week and I have zero lineups such as her. Generally, Esparza is a decent wrestler and we like wrestlers in DraftKings. I just don’t see wrestling in her very best interest against Jandiroba and that I believe she uses her wrestling in shield to try to keep this fight on the feet. All the danger is on the floor in this matchup and Carla gets the better boxing of both. I believe she could win a 30-27 striking decision but won’t score highly, and I would guess it puts up about ~60 DK points. That isn’t going to reduce it at $8.2k so I just don’t see the way she ends up about the 25k lineup this week if she does win, and that is why she is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I’m 69-44 to get +224.83u (+$22,483) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)